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Forget Xs, Os — lines matter most in Super Bowl XLVI
By Jim Hughes, Command Information Officer
Football is an Xs and Os sport, but Super Bowl XLVI will come down to lines.
With all the storylines associated with Super Bowl XLVI, the result of this game depends on what goes on at the line of scrimmage — can the Patriots offensive line stop the Giants defensive line’s onslaught.
Of course, you can only debate that for so long — Sunday we’ll see who wins the battle — and there are plenty of other storylines.
Revenge: the Giants ruined the Patriots’ quest to go 19-0 in Super Bowl XLII and gave New England its last loss in November.
The Gronk: Will tight end Rob Gronkowski’s ankle be OK for the game or not? He’s not the end all, be all for the Patriots offense, but they are much more effective when he’s at full speed than when he isn’t. And even if he plays, how effective will he be?
Elite Eli: In an interview at the start of the season, Eli Manning said he considered himself an elite quarterback. He pretty much backed that up. And a win Sunday will definitely earn him a spot there, and he will even surpass his older brother in Super Bowl titles.
Belichick vs. Coughlin: Even though many New York fans were calling for Tom Coughlin’s head as late as Week 15 this year after a shocking loss to the Redskins, the man has a pretty good regular and post-season record. But then, it’s New York and the axe could fall at any time – although winning this Super Bowl would probably keep him safe through next year’s pre-season. And we all know about Bill Belichick: it will be fun to see what he cooks up for this one – especially on the defensive side.
Not very Brady of him: After an incredible run early in his career that saw him on the winning side of his first 10 postseason games, Tom Brady has been lackluster of late in the playoffs, with a notable exception being his six-touchdown performance against Denver a few weeks ago. He’ll need to regain the magic of postseasons past for New England to win this one.
New York vs. Boston: Whether it’s the Red Sox vs. Yankees, Patriots vs. Jets, Bruins vs. Rangers, Celtics vs. Knicks, well, OK, forget about the Knicks, but our friends in the northeast love to go at each other in whatever sports arena they can arrange to meet in, and if it’s for the championship, so much the better. Serious trash-talking for an entire year is on the line in this one – can you imagine the crushing blow it would be to Boston if they lose to the Giants again?
That’s not all of them, so pick your favorite storyline, but the game mainly hinges on the two opposing lines.
On the line
The general consensus on how to slow down Brady and the high-flying New England offense is to get pressure on the quarterback, and New York has done it well the past few times these teams have met.
With the Patriots’ outstanding offensive line, that is often much easier said than done, but the Giants have the tools to do it effectively. Towards the end of the season is when the Giants got hot and became a new team — rattling off five straight elimination game wins. It’s no coincidence that this was when the defensive front healed up and Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, and tackles Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard finally got to spend some quality time together standing over opposing QBs.
The Giants have proven in the games they lost they are beatable deep. And, when you think about the yardage gained by the Patriots offense, you might think that is a big problem. But while Brady and Co. can go deep, they make their
living on short and medium passes — the specialty of the Giants defense.
The other way you prevent teams from going deep is pressuring the QB so receivers don’t have time to get very far before the QB throws it away or gets hammered. And when you can do it with just your front four, and have seven people in coverage, you’re making life difficult for even an offense as good as New England’s.
The Patriots’ offensive line is going to have to stall the Giants pass rush or it will be a long, painful day for Brady. It isn’t mission impossible, though. The New England line features two Pro Bowl players at guard and pretty good talent at tackle. Plus, Belichick likes to put additional linemen in the backfield from time to time to give them an added punch to their blocking schemes.
On the flip side, the Patriots are going to need another stellar effort from Vince Wilfork and the rest of the defense, one very similar to the Ravens and Broncos games. New England shut down both Denver’s and Baltimore’s impressive running games by switching to a 3-4 scheme (although still employing a 4-3 on passing situations), moving Wilfork all over the line and having wide receiver Julian Edelman fill in for the depleted secondary.
That last part hasn’t worked so well. Look for Manning to target that matchup all day long — and with his stable of receivers, it could get ugly if Belichick hasn’t figured out a workaround.
Above and beyond the line matchup, there are some other key players that are going to have to shine Sunday for their team to win.
New York’s secondary is going to have to cover effectively and tackle at the point of the catch or Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez will be running all over the place. If Gronkowski is ineffective due to his injury, that will take loads of pressure off because they can double team elsewhere.
The Giants offensive line, another unit coming together at the right time, will need to keep Manning upright. Manning is certainly in the elite class of QBs, but he doesn’t like pressure any more than Brady, and he is capable of making huge mistakes trying to make things happen — 25 interceptions last year.
While the Patriots are vulnerable to aerial attacks, the Giants need to establish at least the illusion of an effective running game. Plus, they’re likely going to want to eat some clock at some point to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands.
On the New England side, if Gronkowski is ineffective, Welker, Hernandez, Deion Branch and The Law Firm (BenJarvus Green-Ellis) will need to step up and make big plays and earn serious yards after the catch.
I’m not sure how this one will play out because both teams have proven in the post season that they can win even when what they want to do isn’t what they are able to do. But I have some thoughts on it.
I’m going to stick with my initial pick of the Giants. I highly suspect they are going to pressure Brady and he will be much less effective than he wants to be. I think Gronk’s ankle will limit his effectiveness, and in turn that of Welker and
Hernandez since one or the other will inherit that double team.
I think a healthy Ahmad Bradshaw will give New York the running game it needs to eat the clock. I think Manning will pick spots to eat the Patriots’ secondary alive — look for a big game from Victor Cruz.
I think it will still be a close game, but I think turnovers and special teams will play big roles, and I think the Giants pull it off something like 27-24. But, I’m certainly neither psychic nor a football expert — I’m just a fan hoping to jinx the Giants.
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